What’s Going On With Bitcoin?

Analyst reported that long-term holders accumulated 3.06 million BTC over three months, but some older coins are being sold at a loss.

Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) cohort is expanding steadily. According to Axel Adler Jr., LTH Realized Supply has climbed from 5.26 million BTC in January 2026 to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, an addition of 3.06 million units over the past three months and a yearly rise from 4.35 million BTC.

This metric tracks the total volume of BTC unmoved for over 155 days, where growth partly stems from existing coins maturing into the LTH category through inactivity rather than fresh purchases.

Bitcoin’s LTH Cohort Balloons

Over the past year, the supply surged from 4.16 million to 8.32 million BTC, which indicated compression of liquid supply amid consolidation around $76,000. However, this alone does not assure an imminent price rally. Adler stated that a downward reversal in LTH Realized Supply would mean old coins returning to circulation and would serve as a key deterioration indicator.

For context, during the 2022 bear market peak in November, the figure hit 15.31 million BTC before declining as coins were spent.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) on a 7-day simple moving average has dipped below 1.0, currently at 0.979 for the fifth straight day since April 12. This means that long-term holders are spending coins at a loss. This follows recurring dips below the neutral 1.0 threshold since February 2026, including a deeper drop to 0.798 in late March through early April that lasted seven days, with a brief recovery above 1.0 from April 5 to 11 before the latest slide.

Adler explained that SOPR measures the profitability only of spent LTH coins, not the full cohort, and is different from the current shallow, quick-recovering dips with bear market episodes – like 231 days below 1.0 in 2022 (low of 0.45) or 292 days in 2018-2019. He described the present pattern as local stress and not capitulation. All eyes are on whether SOPR holds above March lows or breaks lower, especially alongside any Realized Supply reversal.

Neutral-Cautious Crossroads

The combination of the two metrics has been deemed to be a neutral-to-cautious market picture – LTH Realized Supply growth signals cohort expansion and reduced old supply activity, providing a structurally positive base, while the fresh SOPR drops below 1.0, highlighting short-term pressure from loss-taking sales.

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A rapid SOPR rebound above 1.0 with continued Realized Supply gains would confirm the weakness as a fleeting episode. On the other hand, a prolonged hold of SOPR below 1.0 with losses and a Realized Supply downturn would indicate a shift to old coin distribution and a bearish regime change.

Separately, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) has dropped into the 0.2-0.3 historic undervaluation zone, which essentially confirms a correction reset. With BTC trading just above $76,000, this pivot, last seen in early 2023, is major undervaluation per the index blending MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and Fear & Greed. The setup indicates a “value-accumulation” phase with reduced downside versus long-term upside.

Having said that, the 90-day moving average’s continued decline warns that selling pressure lingers.