July arabica coffee (KCN26) today is down -4.95 (-1.81%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) is down -48 (-1.36%).
Coffee prices fell from 1.5-week highs today and turned lower after weakness in the Brazilian real sparked long liquidation in coffee futures. The real (^USDBRL) fell to a 1-week low today, encouraging export sales from Brazil’s coffee producers.
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Coffee prices today initially climbed to 1.5-week highs on global weather risks. Robusta rose sharply amid dry weather in Vietnam, which is raising concerns about the country’s robusta coffee crop. Weather forecaster Vaisala said recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main growing region, have been spotty, and more rain is needed to aid cherry growth.
Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supportive for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
Coffee prices have ratcheted lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low last Tuesday, amid an improved global supply outlook. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by 12% y/y to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Apr) rose by +15.8% y/y to 810,000 MT. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).
ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past 2 months, which is supportive of coffee prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15, but recovered to a 6-week high of 3,968 lots last Friday. Also, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 446,816 bags on Tuesday.
Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell -1.3% y/y to 2.76 million bags.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure of the Strait has tightened coffee supplies by increasing global shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, and raising costs for coffee importers and roasters.
As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.
The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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