XRP’s price action has managed to hold above $1 for over a year, but technical analysis shows this could be over soon. Notably, technical analysis from crypto analyst CasiTrades warned about a bearish outlook on the token, with the outlook that there’s still a multi-stage decline in play, which could cause the price of XRP to fall to as low as $0.87.
Weak Bounces Signal Sellers Still In Control
CasiTrades flagged the character of recent relief moves as a bearish signal. According to the analysis, XRP’s recent price behavior is showing clear signs of exhaustion on the upside. This is because every bounce has been cut short around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a clear indication that sellers are still in control of the price action.
This repeated rejection at shallow retracement levels is a reflection of another broader issue the XRP price is currently facing: buyers are not stepping in with enough strength to change momentum. Instead, each bounce is being sold into quickly, keeping the altcoin locked in a downward structure.
The structure outlined in the analysis follows a clear Elliott Wave breakdown, with XRP playing out a Wave 3 move to the downside. In the context of Elliot Waves, Wave 3 is the most intense part of both bullish and bearish wave cycles.
Based on this count, XRP is projected to drop to as low as $1.09 during Wave 3, with intermediate subwave targets around $1.06. These levels are based on previous liquidity zones and Fibonacci retracements at 0.786 on a larger cycle and 1.618 on a lower cycle.
A temporary relief bounce is expected afterward, which would create the next impulse Wave 4. Wave 4 is expected to push the XRP price back into the $1.22 to $1.31 range. However, this move is going to be a brief correction against Wave 3, and the broader bearish trend will still be in place.
Sub-$1 Scenario Comes Into Focus
After Wave 4 comes Wave 5, which is a continuation impulse wave in Elliott Wave theory. The most notable part of the forecast lies in how XRP ends up in Wave 5, which is the final leg of the structure. After the projected relief bounce, the analyst predicted a continuation lower toward a major macro support zone around $0.87. This price target is based on the 0.854 Fib retracement on the larger cycle.
Interestingly, the chart above shows that these five impulse wave counts are subwaves of a larger Wave 2 (labeled in green in the chart above), which is also a corrective wave in the Elliott Waves Theory. A bottom around $0.87 is not the end, as the next move would be the larger Wave 3, which is predicted to take the XRP price back above $2.
Featured image from Sketchfab, chart from Tradingview.com
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