Will Crypto Markets React to $1.8B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today?

The end of the week is here again, which means another batch of crypto options contracts is expiring as spot markets continue to retreat again. 

Around 27,600 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, April 3, with a notional value of roughly $1.8 billion. This event is smaller than usual, so it is unlikely to have any impact on spot markets.

Crypto prices have been mostly sideways this week, with total capitalization dipping on Friday.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.54, meaning that there are many more longs than shorts expiring. Max pain is around $68,000, according to Coinglass, which is close to current spot prices, so many could be in the money on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $60,000 strike price on Deribit, with $1.5 billion in bearish bets.

Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has fallen back following the end of the Q1 expiry event and is currently 31 billion.

Bitcoin put (short) options are more expensive than those on Ethereum across multiple all-time frames, suggesting traders are more worried about BTC’s downside risk, noted Deribit this week.

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, around 157,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $322 million, max pain at $2,100, and a put/call ratio of 0.73. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $6.3 billion.

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This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiries to around $2.1 billion in a small expiry event this week.

Spot Market Outlook

Total capitalization was flat on the day at $2.37 trillion during Friday morning trading in Asia. Markets were eyeing recovery until President Trump signaled another 2 to 3 weeks of air strikes in Iran, which rattled investors, leading to another selloff. Bitcoin topped $67,000 in late trading on Thursday but couldn’t hold it, falling back to $66,600 at the time of writing.

“The level of supply in profit and in loss is now reaching levels typical of a true bear market,” observed CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost.’

Ether prices have weakened all week, falling back to $2,000 yesterday, and trading at $2,050 on Friday morning. Further reminders that most of the altcoins are at bear market bottoms are not really necessary.

Analyst ‘Daan Crypto Trades’ said that Bitcoin still has not made new lows during this conflict, as the previous drop to $60,000 has not been retested as of now.

“So, where crypto sold off by itself from October to February, it has held relatively stable thus far during this conflict.”