Bitcoin (BTC) spot volumes on Binance have dropped to their lowest level since September 2023, indicating that the current intraday price rise may not be backed by strong demand.
The rally above $71,700 on Monday appears to be driven mainly by news headlines and liquidations in the Bitcoin futures markets.
Binance volumes and exchange flows signal the demand gap for BTC
Crypto analyst Darkfost said that March is on track to record the lowest Binance spot volume since Q3 2023, at roughly $52 billion, compared to the $88 billion recorded in September 2023. The activity levels align with the prior bear market conditions, pointing to the reduced participation.
The exchange flow data shows a similar slowdown. Crypto analyst Arab Chain reported $6.38 billion in seven-day cumulative flows on Binance and $5.14 billion on Coinbase. The Binance flows have dropped to the lowest level since 2024, indicating reduced deposit activity.
However, the lower inflows may also coincide with a reduced supply to sell, as fewer coins move onto the exchanges. The Coinbase flows remain relatively stable, reflecting the steadier participation from the long-term investors.
The large-holder activity added another layer. Market analyst Gaah identified a record surge in the whale inflow momentum, which tracks the rate of change in large transfers to the exchanges.
The current reading of 74.3 surpasses all prior cycle peaks over the past 11 years, with a higher level last recorded at 124.6 in 2015.
The elevated inflow velocity signals an aggressive capital rotation and hedging, increasing BTC’s sensitivity to short-term volatility over the next few weeks.
Related: Bitcoin rebounds to $71K as oil drops after Trump signals pause on Iran strikes
Bitcoin liquidation activity shows traders lack conviction
The BTC rally followed reports that President Trump had deferred the planned US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days after citing progress in the diplomatic discussions, a claim later rejected by Iran’s foreign ministry, which denied that any talks had taken place.
BTC still pushed to a weekly high of $71,789 on Binance during the US market session, driven by the above external catalyst rather than by spot demand or futures positioning, leading the move.
Data shows the rally coincided with a reduction in leverage. The aggregated open interest declined by about 9,700 BTC, marking a 4% drop over 13 hours.
The open interest tracks the total number of active futures contracts, and the decline during a price increase signals that the positions were being closed rather than new ones being opened.
This type of move typically occurs when short positions are forced out of the market, reducing the total exposure while pushing the price higher. Binance recorded over $44 million in short liquidations within one hour, the largest since the one-hour long liquidations of $53 million on Feb. 6.
The Coinbase premium (in percentage terms) remained negative during the move, indicating limited spot demand from US participants.
The falling open interest, high liquidations, and weak premiums suggest the move higher was driven by positions being closed rather than new money entering the market, with most of the activity clustered around the $71,000–$72,000 range.
Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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