Bitcoin Drifting Toward the Long-Term Holder Pain Point: Analysts

Bitcoin prices continue to weaken and are approaching pain levels for long-term holders, according to analysts. 

As Bitcoin markets fail to improve, analysts have been looking into the behavior of the different investor cohorts in the market.

“One of the cornerstone cohorts in this framework is long-term holders (LTH), known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations,” said CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ on Tuesday.

Currently, long-term holders are sitting on an average profit of roughly 74%, but this profit margin continues to decline as the price moves closer to the LTH cost basis, currently estimated at around $38,900, they said.

Bear Market Breaks Below Cost Basis

The analyst looked at historical cycles, noting that each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, “triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.”

Only when this happens, and markets begin to recover and enter a bull phase, the analyst noted.

BTC Drifting Toward the LTH Pain Point

“Looking at historical precedent, each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of ~20%.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/c50CHSzEBU

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 24, 2026

Glassnode reported on Tuesday that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has now fallen below 1, “confirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.” The analysis echoes that of Darkfost: historically, these bearish conditions persist for at least 6 months before liquidity returns to markets.

Meanwhile, analyst James Check said that Bitcoin has almost printed five consecutive red monthly candles, “following the largest volatility spike of the cycle.”

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He also observed that 1-week realised volatility spiked above 150%, “a level typically seen around capitulation events,” weekly RSI is at one of the “most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history,” and around $70 billion of BTC has migrated to new hands in the $60,000 to $70,000 range this year.

Bitcoin supply in loss just hit 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading ever, observed analyst James Van Straten, who added that the circulating supply hits 20 million BTC next week, and 50% is in loss.

“History suggests that’s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom,” he said.

Bitcoin Sees Small Rebound

There was a minor rebound during early trading in Asia on Wednesday morning, with BTC adding $2,000 to reclaim $66,000. However, the move does not appear to be natural, and bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Moreover, the move has formed another lower high with $60,000 still serving as support for lower lows.