Analyst Warns BTC Dominance Break Will Dictate Whether Alts Explode or Collapse

ETH is up 22% year-on-year while Bitcoin has shed nearly 11% over the same stretch, a divergence that is starting to show up in the charts.

Bitcoin’s market share is stuck between 58% and 60%, which is a six-month trading range that one expert says will decide whether Ethereum and smaller altcoins enter a bullish season or suffer more losses.

As such, the market observer urged keeping an eye on the level at which dominance could break, ushering in the next big move in the crypto market.

The Narrow Corridor Controlling Crypto’s Fate

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures how much of the total cryptocurrency market cap BTC makes up, was stuck between 58% and 60% for the last 6 months. But according to analyst Ash Crypto, this consolidation has created a technical setup where a break above 60% could send dominance up to 63% or 64%.

And if that happened, it would mean that institutions are only buying Bitcoin, causing altcoins to bleed further and pushing the value of the ETH/BTC pair to new lows.

On the other hand, a break below 58% would mean that capital is leaving Bitcoin and going into Ethereum and other altcoins. The analysts said that this would confirm an ETH/BTC breakout above the 0.0320 level, which would mark the start of a genuine altcoin season.

The ETH/BTC pair itself is printing what Ash Crypto described as a bear trap, something it has done twice before.

“Break above 0.0320 and ETH starts outperforming Bitcoin,” the expert wrote. “Break below 0.0280 and new lows follow.”

At the time of writing, ETH/BTC was trading close to 0.0314, just below the critical threshold Ash Crypto had identified.

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Ethereum’s Technical Picture Gets Interesting

BTC itself has been mostly flat over the past 24 hours, staying just above $74,000 after hitting a six-week high of about $76,000 on Coinbase on Tuesday. However, there’s much more action over longer periods, with the asset up more than 6% in the last seven days and about 8% across 30 days.

Ethereum has had a pretty good performance in the last few weeks, going up about 14% in the last seven days and about 18% in both the last 14 and 30 days. At the time of writing, it was trading above the $2,300 level, up 22% from the same time last year, compared to BTC’s nearly 11% drop in the same period.

At the same time, ETH’s SuperTrend indicator changed from “Sell” to “Buy” for the first time since September 2025. Recall, the last two times that signal showed up, the cryptocurrency rose by 52% and 174%, respectively, prompting analyst Ali Martinez to identify $2,400 and $2,600 as the next levels to watch.