Ethereum Eyes First Positive Month Since August 2025

Large ETH holders have reduced their positions by around 180,000 ETH during the current downturn, adding supply-side pressure to weak demand.

Ethereum (ETH) is hovering above $2,000 as we approach the end of March, with traders watching whether it can close its first positive month since August 2025.

The outcome is important because a sustained break above or below key levels could determine whether the altcoin comes out of a prolonged slump or extends it further.

ETH Testing $2K

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency has ended up in the red in each of the last six months, and data shared on March 30 by analyst Wise Crypto shows cumulative dips nearing 50%. Furthermore, its price action has stayed trapped in a falling channel since mid-March, and whale holdings have dropped significantly, with the analyst noting that these large holders had sold around 180,000 ETH.

Meanwhile, fellow market watcher Markus Thielen pointed to mixed technical signals, with ETH recently breaking below a key support structure and forming what he described as a bear flag pattern. He said that there had been a similar formation in January, which came right before ETH dropped below $1,800, raising concerns that the current setup could follow the same path.

There has also been limited demand for the asset, with trading volumes subdued and the last green day for ETF flows appearing on March 17, which has been followed by 8 straight days of outflows per data from SoSoValue, pushing their performance so far this month to -$82.13 million.

But Wise Crypto says that $1,970 is now the decisive level, warning that a breakdown could open the path toward $1,910, $1,830, and even $1,650. However, a move back above $2,050 could provide some relief for ETH. That last outlook is similar to what Ted Pillows shared last week when he wrote that ETH could rebound to a liquidity cluster around $2,100 before resuming a downtrend.

Data from CoinGecko shows ETH trading near $2,040 at the time of writing, up by about 2% in the last 24 hours but remaining pretty flat over the past week. Nevertheless, the token was down more than 10% across 14 days, although it gained approximately 6% in the previous month.

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Ethereum and BTC in the Same Boat

Going back to Ethereum’s performance since last year, CryptoRank data shows that although the asset registered strong gains in May (+41.1%), July (+48.7%), and August 2025 (+18.7%), it all went downhill after that. ETH has since posted negative monthly returns from September last year up to February this year, with the worst performance of that period coming in November 2025, when returns dipped by over 22%.

After a rather flat December, the pain resumed in January 2026, when ETH fell 17.7%, repeating the trick in February with another 19.6%. However, March has so far produced a positive return, standing at just under 5% at the time of writing. Still, with today and tomorrow to go, and price stability not assured, that gain is not yet secure.

Bitcoin (BTC) is also looking for a first positive return since October 2025, although the OG crypto is cutting it even closer with returns at less than 1%, according to CoinGlass, after losing nearly 15% in February and slightly over 10% in January.

A March 30 update shared by XWIN Research Japan suggested that BTC’s current market closely resembles a “demand pause” rather than a full capitulation, with the asset’s SOPR metric, which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, hovering near the break-even level.

That framing may also apply to Ethereum. The structural pieces, including the ETF vehicles, the institutional frameworks, and the DeFi rails, are still in place. But what is missing is the buying pressure to put them to use, and whether the next couple of sessions around the $1,970 level provide a catalyst in either direction is something traders will be watching closely before the March monthly candle closes.