December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ24) Thursday closed down -57 (-0.77%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ24) closed down -13 (-0.22%).
Cocoa prices Thursday fell back from 1-week highs and settled lower after the dollar index (DXY00) recovered from a 1-week low and moved higher, which sparked long liquidation pressure in cocoa futures after the sharp rally seen earlier this week.
However, losses in London cocoa were limited after the British pound (^GBPUSD) fell to a 2-1/2 month low Thursday. The weaker pound boosts cocoa priced in sterling.
Cocoa prices are seeing support from heavy rain in some areas of Africa’s cocoa-growing region, which has caused flooding, obstructed access to fields, and fostered cocoa disease.
Also, JPMorgan on Tuesday predicted a cocoa deficit of 100,000 MT in the current 2024/25 marketing year, tighter than its previous forecast of a neutral balance and the market consensus for a small surplus. The JPMorgan analyst said, “We maintain our view of structurally higher cocoa prices for longer, amid supply-side constraints and firm demand.”
Shrinking global cocoa stockpiles are bullish for prices. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 17 months and fell to a 19-year low Wednesday of 1,770,382 bags.
Harvest pressures in the Ivory Coast are undercutting cocoa prices. Monday’s government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 284,633 MT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to October 27, up +26% from 225,698 MT shipped the same time last year. The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer.
Cocoa prices were undercut when the Ivory Coast regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao on October 18 raised its Ivory Coast 2024/25 cocoa production estimate to a range of 2.1-2.2 MMT from a June forecast of 2.0 MMT.
Recent global cocoa demand news has been mixed. The National Confectioners Association on October 17 reported that North American Q3 cocoa grindings rose +12% y/y to 109,264 MT. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asian cocoa grinding rose +2.6% y/y to 216,998 MT. However, the European Cocoa Association reported that European Q3 cocoa grindings fell -3.3% y/y to 354,335 MT.
Cocoa found support after Ghana’s Cocoa Board (Cocobod) on August 20 cut its 2024/25 Ghana cocoa production estimate to 650,000 MT from a June forecast of 700,000 MT. Due to bad weather and crop disease, Ghana’s 2023/24 coca harvest sank to a 23-year low of 425,000 MT. Ghana is the world’s second-biggest cocoa producer, and its 2024/25 cocoa harvest begins in October.
An increase in cocoa production by Cameroon, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, is bearish for cocoa prices. On August 21, Cameroon’s National Cocoa and Coffee Board reported that in 2023/24 (Aug/July), Cameroon cocoa production rose +1.2% y/y to 266,725. Also, Nigeria’s August cocoa exports rose by +6.8% y/y to 14,984 MT. Nigeria is the world’s sixth-largest cocoa producer.
In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) on August 30 raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -462,000 MT from May’s -439,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO also cut its 2023/24 cocoa production estimate to 4.330 MMT from May’s 4.461 MMT. ICCO projected a 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio of a 46-year low of 27.4%.
More Cocoa News from Barchart
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
